The score moved the wrong way this month. June: 4 of 10. July: 5 of 10.What got better:- VNQ is outpacing SPY by 5.22 points, which is the largest lead of the year. Institutional capital is rotating into real estate with conviction. Credit spreads held near cycle lows at 96 bps. The credit window is open.What got worse:- The 10-year is back at 4.63%. I flagged this risk in June. It materialized. Few deal pencils cleanly at this level without serious equity or seller concessions.- June payrolls came in at +57,000. May was +172,000. That is not a slowdown; that is a stall.- Community banks are still tightening on construction paper. Three consecutive SLOOS surveys. No sign of resolution.What I am watching in August:- Does the 10-year break toward 4.75% — or finally pull back below 4.30%?- Does the August jobs report confirm the labor stall or was June an outlier?- Does Warsh speak, or stay silent? Either move is now a market event.Public markets are pricing a recovery. The transaction market is delivering a different reality. The gap between those two is where the opportunity lives.
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