Reading the Real Estate Cycle with Bob Knakal - Where CRE Is Headed in 2026

Guest:

Bob Knakal, BK Real Estate Advisors

Host:

Logan Freeman, Managing Broker, Midwest CRE Advisors

In Season 2, Episode 4 of The Kansas City Market Pulse, host Logan Freeman welcomes back Bob Knakal, founder of BKREA, to read the commercial real estate cycle heading into 2026.

Bob has closed roughly 2,391 property sales totaling over $24 billion. He explains why volume is rebounding, how AI is changing his business, and why one sector in New York is stuck.

Episode Highlights:

AI as a Data Edge: BKREA is mining 42 years of consistent data, including a land index of over 2,500 Manhattan development site sales going back to 1984.
Buyer Profiles: Decades of marketing reports now show which buyers sign CAs, bid and close, so outreach goes to proven buyers instead of guesses.
Volume Is Back: Over $180 billion traded nationally in Q4 2025, putting the year around $550 billion to $600 billion.
Pent-Up Selling: Manhattan turnover was 2.5% in 2025, the seventh straight year at or below trend, which Bob says has never happened before.
Zombie Buildings: Rent-regulated multifamily values are down about 75% from peak. Owners and lenders both want out, and policy, not supply and demand, is the cause.

Bob's advice holds in any market: this is one of the purest forms of meritocracy that exists. You get out of it exactly what you put into it.

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Key Takeaways

Bob Knakal has closed about 2,391 property sales totaling over $24 billion over a career that began in 1984.
BKREA uses AI on 42 years of consistently gathered data, including a land index of over 2,500 Manhattan development site sales; corner sites showed a 24.4% pricing premium over midblock sites.
Profiles built from decades of marketing reports show which buyers sign CAs, bid and close, so sellers can target the most reliable buyers.
More than $180 billion traded nationally in Q4 2025, putting 2025 around $550 billion to $600 billion.
Manhattan turnover was 2.5% in 2025, the seventh straight year at or below trend, which signals heavy pent-up demand to sell.
Rent-regulated New York multifamily values are down about 75% from peak, leaving many buildings with no equity; insurance has risen from $200 to $300 a unit to as much as $2,000.
Outside rent-regulated housing, Bob sees volumes and values improving across sectors, including B and C office.

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Questions Answered in this Episode

Where does Bob Knakal think the CRE cycle is headed in 2026?

Bob Knakal expects a significant increase in sales in 2026. Manhattan turnover was 2.5% in 2025, the seventh straight year at or below trend, so there is heavy pent-up demand to sell. Outside rent-regulated housing, he sees volumes and values improving.

How is Bob Knakal using AI in commercial real estate?

BKREA applies AI to 42 years of consistently gathered data, such as a land index of over 2,500 Manhattan development site sales since 1984, and to decades of marketing reports that show which buyers sign CAs, make bids and how those bids compare to final prices. That lets the team target the buyers most likely to close.

Why are some New York rent-regulated buildings called zombie buildings?

After 2019 rule changes, rent-regulated multifamily values fell about 75% from peak. With average debt around 50% of value, owners have no equity and lenders are impaired, while taxes and insurance keep rising. Neither the owner nor the lender wants the building, so they do not trade.

Where can I listen to "Reading the Real Estate Cycle with Bob Knakal - Where CRE Is Headed in 2026"?

The episode from The Kansas City Market Pulse, hosted by Logan Freeman of Midwest CRE Advisors, is on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube, and on the show page at mwcreadvisors.com.

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